| Simulación de: |
| CRECIMIENTO DE
LAS TRANSACCIONES EN DINERO NEGRO |
| PARAMETROS Y VARIABLES EXOGENAS |
| | antes |
ahora |
diferencia |
| Mercado de
Bienes |
|
|
| Propension marginal a consumir |
c |
0.6300 |
0.6300 |
|
| Tipo impositivo |
t |
0.2200 |
0.2200 |
|
| Propension marginal a invertir |
j |
0.3000 |
0.3000 |
|
| sensibilidad inversión a tipo interés |
b |
0.2000 |
0.2000 |
|
| Consumo Autonomo |
Cº |
23 |
23 |
|
| Inversion Autónoma |
Iº |
12 |
12 |
|
| Gasto Publico Autonomo |
Gº |
38 |
38 |
|
| Transferencias del Estado |
TRº |
1 |
1 |
|
| Impuestos Fijos |
Tº |
1 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
| Mercado de
Dinero |
|
| sensib. demanda dinero a la Renta |
k |
1.3000 |
1.3000 |
|
| sensib.demanda dinero al t.interes |
h |
1.0000 |
1.0000 |
|
| relacion efectivo/depositos |
e |
0.1000 |
0.1010 |
0.0010 |
| coeficente reservas/depositos |
r |
0.0600 |
0.0600 |
|
| Base Monetaria |
Hº |
65 |
65 |
|
|
|
| Mercado de
Trabajo |
|
| cotizacion empresas a seg. social |
cssf |
0.1000 |
0.1000 |
|
| cotizacion trabajadores a seg. social |
cssw |
0.1000 |
0.1000 |
|
| impuestos sobre trabajo |
tw |
0.1000 |
0.1000 |
|
| productividad media del trabajo |
a |
2.0000 |
2.0000 |
|
| sensibilidad oferta trabajo |
gs |
0.1000 |
0.1000 |
|
| sensibilidad demanda trabajo |
f |
0.1000 |
0.1000 |
|
| demada trabajo autonoma |
Dº |
39 |
39 |
|
| salario minimo |
Sº |
2 |
2 |
|
| Poblacion Activa |
FL |
200.00 |
200.00 |
|
| porcentaje paro friccional |
uf |
6.7000 |
6.7000 |
|
|
|
| EQUILIBRO CLASICO |
Mayor |
Mayor |
EQUILIBRIO KEYNESIANO |
CONCLUSIONES |
|
| antes |
ahora |
diferencia |
a corto |
Nivel Inicial |
Variación % |
| antes |
ahora |
diferencia |
a corto |
| variables
nominales |
| precio |
P |
1.2759 |
1.2692 |
(0.0068) |
P |
baja |
clasico |
clasico |
1.1140
|
1.1112 |
(0.0027) |
P |
baja |
| salario nominal |
W |
27.5335 |
27.3873 |
(0.1461) |
W |
baja |
clasico |
clasico |
22.9375
|
22.9066 |
(0.0308) |
W |
baja |
| interes |
i |
46.6105 |
46.6105 |
|
i |
= |
clasico |
clasico |
23.9397 |
24.4545 |
0.5148 |
i |
sube |
| dinero |
M |
446.8750 |
444.5031 |
(2.3719) |
M |
baja |
igual |
igual |
444.5031 |
(2.3719) |
M |
baja |
| variables
reales |
|
| renta |
Y |
305.2632
|
305.2632
|
|
Y |
= |
keynesiano |
keynesiano |
326.9993
|
326.5057 |
(0.4936) |
Y |
baja |
| renta disponible |
Yd |
238.1053 |
238.1053 |
|
Yd |
= |
keynesiano |
keynesiano |
255.0595 |
254.6745 |
(0.3850) |
Yd |
baja |
| empleo |
N |
152.6316 |
152.6316 |
|
N |
= |
keynesiano |
keynesiano |
163.4997 |
163.2529
|
(0.2468) |
N |
baja |
| desempleo involuntario |
U |
|
|
|
U |
= |
keynesiano |
keynesiano |
23.1003 |
23.3471 |
0.2468 |
U |
sube |
| salarios reales |
W/P |
21.5789
|
21.5789
|
|
W/P |
= |
clasico |
clasico |
20.5909
|
20.6134
|
0.0224 |
W/P |
sube |
| saldos reales dinero |
M/P |
350.2316
|
350.2316
|
|
M/P |
= |
keynesiano |
keynesiano |
401.1594
|
400.0029
|
(1.1565) |
M/P |
baja |
| variables
potenciales |
|
| producc. pobl. activa |
FY |
400.0000 |
400.0000 |
|
FY |
= |
igual |
igual |
400.0000 |
400.0000 |
|
FY |
= |
| renta pleno empleo |
YP |
373.2000 |
373.2000 |
|
YP |
= |
igual |
igual |
373.2000 |
373.2000 |
|
YP |
= |
| pleno empleo |
NP |
186.6000
|
186.6000
|
|
NP |
= |
igual |
igual |
186.6000 |
186.6000
|
|
NP |
= |
| composicion
demanda |
|
| consumo |
C |
173.0063 |
173.0063 |
|
C |
= |
keynesiano |
keynesiano |
183.6875 |
183.4449 |
(0.2426) |
C |
baja |
| inversion |
I |
94.2568 |
94.2568 |
|
I |
= |
keynesiano |
keynesiano |
105.3119 |
105.0608 |
(0.2510) |
I |
baja |
| gasto publico |
G |
38.0000 |
38.0000 |
|
G |
= |
igual |
igual |
38.0000
|
38.0000 |
|
G |
= |
| Demanda Autonoma |
A |
73.0000 |
73.0000 |
|
A |
= |
igual |
igual |
73.0000 |
73.0000 |
|
A |
= |
| otras variables |
|
|
| ahorro |
S |
65.0989 |
65.0989 |
|
S |
= |
keynesiano |
keynesiano |
71.3720
|
71.2296 |
(0.1425) |
S |
baja |
| impuestos |
T |
68.1579 |
68.1579 |
|
T |
= |
keynesiano |
keynesiano |
72.9398 |
72.8313 |
(0.1086) |
T |
baja |
| transferencias |
TR |
1.0000 |
1.0000 |
|
TR |
= |
igual |
igual |
1.0000
|
1.0000 |
|
TR |
= |
| deficit publico |
DP |
(29.1579) |
(29.1579) |
|
DP |
= |
clasico |
keynesiano |
(33.9398) |
(33.8313) |
0.1086 |
DP |
sube |
| multiplicadores |
|
|
| simple |
alfa |
4.7939 |
4.7939 |
|
alfa |
= |
igual |
igual |
4.7939 |
4.7939 |
|
alfa |
= |
| politica fiscal |
Mf |
2.1340 |
2.1340 |
|
Mf |
= |
igual |
igual |
2.1340 |
2.1340 |
|
Mf |
= |
| politica monetaria |
Mm |
0.4268 |
0.4268 |
|
Mm |
= |
igual |
igual |
0.4268 |
0.4268 |
|
Mm |
= |
| monetario |
Mb |
6.8750
|
6.8385 |
(0.0365) |
Mb |
baja |
igual |
igual |
6.8750
|
6.8385 |
(0.0365) |
Mb |
baja |
| pendientes |
|
|
| demanda agregada |
DA |
(0.0085) |
(0.0085) |
|
DA |
= |
keynesiano |
clasico |
(0.0065) |
(0.0065) |
|
DA |
= |
| oferta agregada |
SA |
vertical |
vertical |
|
SA |
= |
keynesiano |
igual |
0.0055 |
0.0055 |
|
SA |
= |
| IS |
IS |
(1.0430) |
(1.0430) |
|
IS |
= |
igual |
igual |
(1.0430) |
(1.0430) |
|
IS |
= |
| LM |
LM |
1.3000 |
1.3000 |
|
LM |
= |
igual |
igual |
1.3000 |
1.3000 |
|
LM |
= |
| demanda trabajo |
DT |
(0.1160) |
(0.1154) |
0.0006 |
DT |
sube |
keynesiano |
clasico |
(0.1013) |
(0.1010) |
0.0002 |
DT |
menor |
| oferta trabajo |
ST |
0.1392 |
0.1389 |
(0.0003) |
ST |
baja |
clasico |
keynesiano |
0.1250 |
0.1250 |
|
ST |
= |
| equilibrios |
|
|
| mercado bienes |
m. bienes |
si |
si |
|
m. bienes |
= |
si |
si |
|
m. bienes |
si |
| mercado dinero |
m. dinero |
si |
si |
|
m. dinero |
= |
si |
si |
|
m. dinero |
si |
| mercado trabajo |
m. trabajo |
si |
si |
|
m. trabajo |
= |
no, paro |
no, paro |
|
m. trabajo |
no, paro |
| desplazamientos
curvas |
| demanda agregada |
DA |
<== |
(0.91) |
DA |
<== |
<== |
(0.9088) |
DA |
<== |
| oferta agregada |
SA |
#¿NOMBRE? |
SA |
|
SA |
| curva IS |
IS |
<== |
#¿NOMBRE? |
IS |
<== |
|
IS |
| curva LM |
LM |
<== |
(0.89) |
LM |
<== |
<== |
(0.8896) |
LM |
<== |
| demanda trabajo |
DT |
########### |
(0.55) |
DT |
######### |
<== |
(0.5522) |
DT |
<== |
| oferta trabajo |
ST |
########### |
ST |
######### |
ST |
|
|
|
Restricciones impuestas a los modelos |
| La Oferta Monetaria se presume independiente
del tipo de interés |
| No se considera el efecto riqueza |
| El consumo se considera independiente del tipo
de interés |
| Las funciones se presumen lineales |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| FORMULAS |
| MODELO CLASICO |
MODELO KEYNESIANO |
| P=M/(kY-hi) |
P...ver abajo |
| W=(Sº+gN)*p/x |
W=(gs*N+Sº)/x |
| i=(A/b)-(Y/alfa/b) |
i=k*Y-(M/P))/h |
| M=Bº*(1+e)/(e+r) |
M=Bº*(1+e)/(e+r) |
|
| Y=N*a |
Y=Mf*A+Mm*(M/P) |
| Yd=Y-T+TRº |
Yd=Y-T+TRº |
| N=(Dºx-Sºz)/(gz+fx) |
N=Y/a |
| U=NP-N |
U=NP-N |
| W/P |
W/P |
|
|
| FY=FL*a |
FY=FL*a |
| YP=NP*a |
YP=NP*a |
| NP=FL(100-uf)/100 |
NP=FL(100-uf)/100 |
|
| C=Cº+c*Yd |
C=Cº+c*Yd |
| I=Iº-bi+jY |
I=Iº-bi+jY |
| G=Gº |
G=Gº |
| A=Cº+Iº+Gº+c(TRº-Tº) |
A=Cº+Iº+Gº+c(TRº-Tº) |
|
| S=-Cº+(1-c)Yd |
S=-Cº+(1-c)Yd |
| T=Tº+tY |
T=Tº+tY |
| TR=TRº |
TR=TRº |
| DP=G+TR-T |
DP=G+TR-T |
|
| alfa=1/[1-c(1-t)-j] |
alfa=1/[1-c(1-t)-j] |
| Mf=1/[1-c(1-t)-j+(bk/h)] |
Mf=1/[1-c(1-t)-j+(bk/h)] |
| Mm=Mf*b/h |
Mm=Mf*b/h |
| Mb=(1+e)/(e+r) |
Mb=(1+e)/(e+r) |
|
| DA'(p/Y)=P*P/Mm/M |
DA'(p/Y)=P*P/Mm/M |
|
SA'(p/Y)=az(Dºgs+fSº)/x/(fY-aDº)^2 |
| IS'(i/Y)=-1/ALFA/B |
IS'(i/Y)=-1/ALFA/B |
| LM'(i/Y)=k/h |
LM'(i/Y)=k/h |
| DT'(W/N)=-fp/(1+cssf) |
DT'(W/N)=-fp/(1+cssf) |
| ST'(W/N)=g*P/(1-cssw-tw) |
ST'(W/N)=g/(1-cssw-tw) |
|
| S-I=DP |
S-I=DP |
| M/P=kY-hi |
M/P=kY-hi |
|
| z=1+cssf |
z=1+cssf |
| x=1-cssw-tw |
x=1-cssw-tw |
|
| Modelo keynesiano |
| Calculo del Precio p de equilibrio: |
| landa*P^2+beta*P+gamma=0 |
| siendo: |
| landa=Mf*A*f*x-Dº*x*a |
| beta=Sº*z*a+gs*z*Mf*A+Mm*M*f*x |
| gamma=gs*z*Mm*M |
|
|
|
|
|
| ESQUEMA ECUACIONES DE AMBOS MODELOS |
Equilibrios |
| Mercado de bienes |
Oferta agregada clasica |
Mercado trabajo Clásico |
| C=Cº+c*(Y-T+TR) |
Y=a*(Dº*x-Sº*z)/(g*z+f*x) |
<==== |
Y=a*N |
| I=Iº+j*Y-b*i |
=== |
====> |
Y=C+I+G |
W*(1+cssf)/P=Dº-f*N |
| G=Gº, TR=TRº |
Demanda agregada |
W(1-cssw-tw)/P=Sº+g*N |
| T=Tº+t*Y |
===> |
Y=Mf*A+Mm*M/P |
Mercado Trabajo Keynesiano |
| Mercado de dinero |
Y=a*N |
| M=Hº*(1+e)/(e+r) |
=== |
====> |
M/P=k*Y-h*i |
Oferta agregada keynesiana |
W*(1+cssf)/P=Dº-f*N |
| L=k*Y-h*i |
P=(1+cssf)(g*Y+a*Sº)/(1-cssw-tw)/(a*Dº-f*Y) |
<==== |
W*(1-cssw-tw)=Sº+g*N |
|