| Simulación de: |
| INCREMENTO
COTIZACION TRABAJADORES A SEG. SOCIAL |
| PARAMETROS Y VARIABLES EXOGENAS |
| | antes |
ahora |
diferencia |
| Mercado de
Bienes |
|
|
| Propension marginal a consumir |
c |
0.6263
|
0.6263 |
|
| Tipo impositivo |
t |
0.2200 |
0.2200 |
|
| Propension marginal a invertir |
j |
0.3000 |
0.3000 |
|
| sensibilidad inversión a tipo interés |
b |
3.0000 |
3.0000 |
|
| Consumo Autonomo |
Cº |
23 |
23 |
|
| Inversion Autónoma |
Iº |
12 |
12 |
|
| Gasto Publico Autonomo |
Gº |
38 |
38 |
|
| Transferencias del Estado |
TRº |
1 |
1 |
|
| Impuestos Fijos |
Tº |
1 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
| Mercado de
Dinero |
|
| sensib. demanda dinero a la Renta |
k |
1.3000 |
1.3000 |
|
| sensib.demanda dinero al t.interes |
h |
1.0000 |
1.0000 |
|
| relacion efectivo/depositos |
e |
0.1000 |
0.1000 |
|
| coeficente reservas/depositos |
r |
0.1000 |
0.1000 |
|
| Base Monetaria |
Hº |
6.0000 |
6.0000 |
|
|
|
| Mercado de
Trabajo |
|
| cotizacion empresas a seg. social |
cssf |
0.1000 |
0.1000 |
|
| cotizacion trabajadores a seg. social |
cssw |
0.0100 |
0.0300 |
0.0200 |
| impuestos sobre trabajo |
tw |
0.0500 |
0.0500 |
|
| productividad media del trabajo |
a |
2.0000 |
2.0000 |
|
| sensibilidad oferta trabajo |
gs |
0.5000 |
0.5000 |
|
| sensibilidad demanda trabajo |
f |
0.4000 |
0.4000 |
|
| demada trabajo autonoma |
Dº |
25 |
25 |
|
| salario minimo |
Sº |
2 |
2 |
|
| Poblacion Activa |
FL |
30.00 |
30.00 |
|
| porcentaje paro friccional |
uf |
6.7000 |
6.7000 |
|
|
|
| EQUILIBRO CLASICO |
Mayor |
Mayor |
EQUILIBRIO KEYNESIANO |
CONCLUSIONES |
|
| antes |
ahora |
diferencia |
a corto |
Nivel Inicial |
Variación % |
| antes |
ahora |
diferencia |
a corto |
| variables
nominales |
| precio |
P |
0.8524 |
0.8737 |
0.0213 |
P |
sube |
keynesiano |
clasico |
0.9292 |
0.9403 |
0.0111 |
P |
sube |
| salario nominal |
W |
12.2425 |
12.6577 |
0.4151 |
W |
sube |
keynesiano |
keynesiano |
13.7414
|
13.9572 |
0.2158 |
W |
sube |
| interes |
i |
21.0902 |
21.1388 |
0.0485 |
i |
sube |
keynesiano |
keynesiano |
21.2550 |
21.2765 |
0.0215 |
i |
sube |
| dinero |
M |
33.0000
|
33.0000
|
|
M |
= |
igual |
igual |
33.0000
|
|
M |
= |
| variables
reales |
|
| renta |
Y |
46.0043
|
45.3159
|
(0.6884) |
Y |
baja |
clasico |
clasico |
43.6675
|
43.3625 |
(0.3050) |
Y |
baja |
| renta disponible |
Yd |
35.8834 |
35.3464 |
(0.5370) |
Yd |
baja |
clasico |
clasico |
34.0607 |
33.8228 |
(0.2379) |
Yd |
baja |
| empleo |
N |
23.0022 |
22.6580 |
(0.3442) |
N |
baja |
clasico |
clasico |
21.8338 |
21.6813
|
(0.1525) |
N |
baja |
| desempleo involuntario |
U |
|
|
|
U |
= |
keynesiano |
keynesiano |
6.1562 |
6.3087 |
0.1525 |
U |
sube |
| salarios reales |
W/P |
14.3629
|
14.4880
|
0.1252 |
W/P |
sube |
keynesiano |
keynesiano |
14.7877
|
14.8432
|
0.0555 |
W/P |
sube |
| saldos reales dinero |
M/P |
38.7154
|
37.7719
|
(0.9435) |
M/P |
baja |
clasico |
clasico |
35.5128
|
35.0948
|
(0.4180) |
M/P |
baja |
| variables
potenciales |
|
| producc. pobl. activa |
FY |
60.0000 |
60.0000 |
|
FY |
= |
igual |
igual |
60.0000 |
60.0000 |
|
FY |
= |
| renta pleno empleo |
YP |
55.9800 |
55.9800 |
|
YP |
= |
igual |
igual |
55.9800 |
55.9800 |
|
YP |
= |
| pleno empleo |
NP |
27.9900
|
27.9900
|
|
NP |
= |
igual |
igual |
27.9900 |
27.9900
|
|
NP |
= |
| composicion
demanda |
|
| consumo |
C |
45.4738 |
45.1375 |
(0.3363) |
C |
baja |
clasico |
clasico |
44.3322 |
44.1832 |
(0.1490) |
C |
baja |
| inversion |
I |
(37.4694) |
(37.8215) |
(0.3521) |
I |
baja |
clasico |
keynesiano |
(38.6647) |
(38.8207) |
(0.1560) |
I |
baja |
| gasto publico |
G |
38.0000 |
38.0000 |
|
G |
= |
igual |
igual |
38.0000
|
38.0000 |
|
G |
= |
| Demanda Autonoma |
A |
73.0000 |
73.0000 |
|
A |
= |
igual |
igual |
73.0000 |
73.0000 |
|
A |
= |
| otras variables |
|
|
| ahorro |
S |
(9.5904) |
(9.7910) |
(0.2007) |
S |
baja |
clasico |
keynesiano |
(10.2715) |
(10.3604) |
(0.0889) |
S |
baja |
| impuestos |
T |
11.1210 |
10.9695
|
(0.1515) |
T |
baja |
clasico |
clasico |
10.6069 |
10.5398 |
(0.0671) |
T |
baja |
| transferencias |
TR |
1.0000 |
1.0000 |
|
TR |
= |
igual |
igual |
1.0000
|
1.0000 |
|
TR |
= |
| deficit publico |
DP |
27.8790 |
28.0305 |
0.1515 |
DP |
sube |
keynesiano |
keynesiano |
28.3931 |
28.4602 |
0.0671 |
DP |
sube |
| multiplicadores |
|
|
| simple |
alfa |
4.7284 |
4.7284 |
|
alfa |
= |
igual |
igual |
4.7284 |
4.7284 |
|
alfa |
= |
| politica fiscal |
Mf |
0.2432 |
0.2432 |
|
Mf |
= |
igual |
igual |
0.2432 |
0.2432 |
|
Mf |
= |
| politica monetaria |
Mm |
0.7297 |
0.7297 |
|
Mm |
= |
igual |
igual |
0.7297 |
0.7297 |
|
Mm |
= |
| monetario |
Mb |
5.5000
|
5.5000
|
|
Mb |
= |
igual |
igual |
5.5000
|
5.5000
|
|
Mb |
= |
| pendientes |
|
|
| demanda agregada |
DA |
(0.0302) |
(0.0317) |
(0.0015) |
DA |
baja |
clasico |
keynesiano |
(0.0359) |
(0.0367) |
(0.0009) |
DA |
mayor |
| oferta agregada |
SA |
vertical |
vertical |
|
SA |
= |
keynesiano |
igual |
0.0294 |
0.0298 |
0.0004 |
SA |
mayor |
| IS |
IS |
(0.0705) |
(0.0705) |
|
IS |
= |
igual |
igual |
(0.0705) |
(0.0705) |
|
IS |
= |
| LM |
LM |
1.3000 |
1.3000 |
|
LM |
= |
igual |
igual |
1.3000 |
1.3000 |
|
LM |
= |
| demanda trabajo |
DT |
(0.3100) |
(0.3177) |
(0.0077) |
DT |
baja |
clasico |
keynesiano |
(0.3379) |
(0.3419) |
(0.0040) |
DT |
mayor |
| oferta trabajo |
ST |
0.4943 |
0.5110 |
0.0168 |
ST |
sube |
keynesiano |
clasico |
0.5319 |
0.5435 |
0.0116 |
ST |
mayor |
| equilibrios |
|
|
| mercado bienes |
m. bienes |
si |
si |
|
m. bienes |
= |
si |
si |
|
m. bienes |
si |
| mercado dinero |
m. dinero |
si |
si |
|
m. dinero |
= |
si |
si |
|
m. dinero |
si |
| mercado trabajo |
m. trabajo |
si |
si |
|
m. trabajo |
= |
no, paro |
no, paro |
|
m. trabajo |
no, paro |
| desplazamientos
curvas |
| demanda agregada |
DA |
<== |
0.00 |
DA |
<== |
|
DA |
| oferta agregada |
SA |
<== |
#¿NOMBRE? |
SA |
<== |
<== |
(0.6779) |
SA |
<== |
| curva IS |
IS |
<== |
#¿NOMBRE? |
IS |
<== |
|
IS |
| curva LM |
LM |
<== |
(0.32) |
LM |
<== |
<== |
(0.3216) |
LM |
<== |
| demanda trabajo |
DT |
########### |
0.48 |
DT |
######### |
==> |
0.4787 |
DT |
==> |
| oferta trabajo |
ST |
########### |
ST |
######### |
<== |
ST |
<== |
|
|
|
Restricciones impuestas a los modelos |
| La Oferta Monetaria se presume independiente
del tipo de interés |
| No se considera el efecto riqueza |
| El consumo se considera independiente del tipo
de interés |
| Las funciones se presumen lineales |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| FORMULAS |
| MODELO CLASICO |
MODELO KEYNESIANO |
| P=M/(kY-hi) |
P...ver abajo |
| W=(Sº+gN)*p/x |
W=(gs*N+Sº)/x |
| i=(A/b)-(Y/alfa/b) |
i=k*Y-(M/P))/h |
| M=Bº*(1+e)/(e+r) |
M=Bº*(1+e)/(e+r) |
|
| Y=N*a |
Y=Mf*A+Mm*(M/P) |
| Yd=Y-T+TRº |
Yd=Y-T+TRº |
| N=(Dºx-Sºz)/(gz+fx) |
N=Y/a |
| U=NP-N |
U=NP-N |
| W/P |
W/P |
|
|
| FY=FL*a |
FY=FL*a |
| YP=NP*a |
YP=NP*a |
| NP=FL(100-uf)/100 |
NP=FL(100-uf)/100 |
|
| C=Cº+c*Yd |
C=Cº+c*Yd |
| I=Iº-bi+jY |
I=Iº-bi+jY |
| G=Gº |
G=Gº |
| A=Cº+Iº+Gº+c(TRº-Tº) |
A=Cº+Iº+Gº+c(TRº-Tº) |
|
| S=-Cº+(1-c)Yd |
S=-Cº+(1-c)Yd |
| T=Tº+tY |
T=Tº+tY |
| TR=TRº |
TR=TRº |
| DP=G+TR-T |
DP=G+TR-T |
|
| alfa=1/[1-c(1-t)-j] |
alfa=1/[1-c(1-t)-j] |
| Mf=1/[1-c(1-t)-j+(bk/h)] |
Mf=1/[1-c(1-t)-j+(bk/h)] |
| Mm=Mf*b/h |
Mm=Mf*b/h |
| Mb=(1+e)/(e+r) |
Mb=(1+e)/(e+r) |
|
| DA'(p/Y)=P*P/Mm/M |
DA'(p/Y)=P*P/Mm/M |
|
SA'(p/Y)=az(Dºgs+fSº)/x/(fY-aDº)^2 |
| IS'(i/Y)=-1/ALFA/B |
IS'(i/Y)=-1/ALFA/B |
| LM'(i/Y)=k/h |
LM'(i/Y)=k/h |
| DT'(W/N)=-fp/(1+cssf) |
DT'(W/N)=-fp/(1+cssf) |
| ST'(W/N)=g*P/(1-cssw-tw) |
ST'(W/N)=g/(1-cssw-tw) |
|
| S-I=DP |
S-I=DP |
| M/P=kY-hi |
M/P=kY-hi |
|
| z=1+cssf |
z=1+cssf |
| x=1-cssw-tw |
x=1-cssw-tw |
|
| Modelo keynesiano |
| Calculo del Precio p de equilibrio: |
| landa*P^2+beta*P+gamma=0 |
| siendo: |
| landa=Mf*A*f*x-Dº*x*a |
| beta=Sº*z*a+gs*z*Mf*A+Mm*M*f*x |
| gamma=gs*z*Mm*M |
|
|
|
|
|
| ESQUEMA ECUACIONES DE AMBOS MODELOS |
Equilibrios |
| Mercado de bienes |
Oferta agregada clasica |
Mercado trabajo Clásico |
| C=Cº+c*(Y-T+TR) |
Y=a*(Dº*x-Sº*z)/(g*z+f*x) |
<==== |
Y=a*N |
| I=Iº+j*Y-b*i |
=== |
====> |
Y=C+I+G |
W*(1+cssf)/P=Dº-f*N |
| G=Gº, TR=TRº |
Demanda agregada |
W(1-cssw-tw)/P=Sº+g*N |
| T=Tº+t*Y |
===> |
Y=Mf*A+Mm*M/P |
Mercado Trabajo Keynesiano |
| Mercado de dinero |
Y=a*N |
| M=Hº*(1+e)/(e+r) |
=== |
====> |
M/P=k*Y-h*i |
Oferta agregada keynesiana |
W*(1+cssf)/P=Dº-f*N |
| L=k*Y-h*i |
P=(1+cssf)(g*Y+a*Sº)/(1-cssw-tw)/(a*Dº-f*Y) |
<==== |
W*(1-cssw-tw)=Sº+g*N |
|