| MODELO NEC -NUEVA MACROECONOMIA CLASICA - |
| INCREMENTO DEL GASTO PUBLICO |
|
10 |
| PARAMETROS Y VARIABLES EXOGENAS |
| | | |
antes |
ahora |
diferencia |
| Mercado de Bienes |
|
|
|
|
| |
Propension marginal a consumir |
c |
0.6300 |
0.6300 |
0.00 |
| |
Tipo impositivo |
t |
0.2200 |
0.2200 |
0.00 |
| |
Propension marginal a invertir |
j |
0.3000 |
0.3000 |
0.00 |
| |
sensibilidad inversión a tipo interés |
bi |
0.2000 |
0.2000 |
0.00 |
| |
sensibilidad consumo al t. interes |
bc |
0.0000 |
0.0000 |
0.00 |
| |
Consumo Autonomo |
Cº |
23 |
23 |
0.00 |
| |
Inversion Autónoma |
Iº |
12 |
12 |
0.00 |
| |
Gasto Publico Autonomo |
Gº |
38 |
39 |
1.00 |
| |
Transferencias del Estado |
TRº |
1 |
1 |
0.00 |
| |
Impuestos Fijos |
Tº |
1 |
1 |
0.00 |
| |
|
| |
|
| Mercado de Dinero |
0.00 |
| |
sensib. demanda dinero a la Renta |
k |
1.3000 |
1.3000 |
0.00 |
| |
sensib.demanda dinero al t.interes |
h |
1.0000 |
1.0000 |
0.00 |
| |
relacion efectivo/depositos |
e |
0.1000 |
0.1000 |
0.00 |
| |
coeficente reservas/depositos |
r |
0.0600 |
0.0600 |
0.00 |
| |
Base Monetaria |
Hº |
65.0000 |
65.0000 |
0.00 |
| |
variacion esperada precios |
varpe |
|
|
| |
|
| Mercado de Trabajo |
|
| |
cotizacion empresas a seg. social |
cssf |
0.1000 |
0.1000 |
0.00 |
| |
cotizacion trabajadores a seg. social |
cssw |
0.1000 |
0.1000 |
0.00 |
| |
impuestos sobre trabajo |
tw |
0.1000 |
0.1000 |
0.00 |
| |
productividad media del trabajo |
a |
2.0000 |
2.0000 |
0.00 |
| |
sensibilidad oferta trabajo |
g |
0.1000 |
0.1000 |
0.00 |
| |
sensibilidad demanda trabajo |
f |
0.0010 |
0.0010 |
0.00 |
| |
demada trabajo autonoma |
Dº |
25.0000 |
25.0000 |
0.00 |
| |
oferta de trabajo autonoma |
Sº |
2.0000 |
2.0000 |
0.00 |
| |
Poblacion Activa |
FL |
225.00 |
225.00 |
0.00 |
| |
porcentaje paro friccional |
uf |
6.7000 |
6.7000 |
0.00 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
EQUILIBRIOS |
diferencia |
CONCLUSIONES |
|
variables endógenas | |
antes |
a corto |
a largo |
corto-antes |
largo-antes |
a corto |
a largo |
| variables nominales |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
precio |
P |
1.15 |
1.16 |
1.17 |
0.00 |
0.02 |
P |
sube |
sube |
|
|
| |
salario nominal |
W |
26.02 |
26.13 |
26.36 |
0.11 |
0.34 |
W |
sube |
sube |
|
| |
interes |
i |
29.88 |
33.36 |
34.88 |
3.48 |
5.00 |
i |
sube |
sube |
|
| |
dinero |
M |
446.88 |
446.88 |
446.88 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
M |
= |
= |
|
| variables reales |
0.00 |
|
| |
renta |
Y |
321.30 |
322.76 |
321.30 |
1.46 |
0.00 |
Y |
sube |
= |
|
|
| |
renta disponible |
Yd |
250.61 |
251.75 |
250.61 |
1.14 |
0.00 |
Yd |
sube |
= |
|
| |
empleo |
N |
160.65 |
161.38 |
160.65 |
0.73 |
0.00 |
N |
sube |
= |
|
| |
desempleo voluntario |
U |
49.28 |
48.54 |
49.28 |
(0.73) |
0.00 |
U |
baja |
= |
|
| |
salarios reales |
W/P |
22.58 |
22.58 |
22.58 |
(0.00) |
0.00 |
W/P |
baja |
= |
|
| |
saldos reales dinero |
M/P |
387.81 |
386.23 |
382.81 |
(1.57) |
(5.00) |
M/P |
baja |
baja |
|
| variables potenciales |
0.00 |
|
| |
producc. pobl. activa |
FY |
450.00 |
450.00 |
450.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
FY |
= |
= |
|
| |
renta pleno empleo |
YP |
419.85 |
419.85 |
419.85 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
YP |
= |
= |
|
| |
pleno empleo |
NP |
209.93 |
209.93 |
209.93 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
NP |
= |
= |
|
| composicion demanda |
0.00 |
|
| |
consumo |
C |
180.89 |
181.61 |
180.89 |
0.72 |
0.00 |
C |
sube |
= |
|
| |
inversion |
I |
102.41 |
102.16 |
101.41 |
(0.26) |
(1.00) |
I |
baja |
baja |
|
| |
gasto publico |
G |
38.00 |
39.00 |
39.00 |
1.00 |
1.00 |
G |
sube |
sube |
|
| |
Demanda Autonoma |
A |
73.00 |
74.00 |
74.00 |
1.00 |
1.00 |
A |
sube |
sube |
|
| otras variables |
0.00 |
0.00 |
|
| |
ahorro |
S |
69.73 |
70.15 |
69.73 |
0.42 |
0.00 |
S |
sube |
= |
|
| |
impuestos |
T |
71.69 |
72.01 |
71.69 |
0.32 |
0.00 |
T |
sube |
= |
|
| |
transferencias |
TR |
1.00 |
1.00 |
1.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
TR |
= |
= |
|
| |
deficit publico |
DP |
(32.69) |
(32.01) |
(31.69) |
0.68 |
1.00 |
DP |
sube |
sube |
|
| multiplicadores demanda |
0.00 |
0.00 |
|
| |
simple |
alfa |
4.79 |
4.79 |
4.79 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
alfa |
= |
= |
|
| |
politica fiscal |
Mf |
2.13 |
2.13 |
2.13 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
Mf |
= |
= |
|
| |
politica monetaria |
Mm |
0.43 |
0.43 |
0.43 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
Mm |
= |
= |
|
| |
monetario |
Mb |
6.88 |
6.88 |
6.88 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
Mb |
= |
= |
|
| pendientes |
0.00 |
0.00 |
|
| |
demanda agregada |
DA |
(0.01) |
(0.01) |
(0.01) |
0.00 |
(0.00) |
DA |
= |
mayor |
|
| |
oferta agregada |
SA |
vertical |
vertical |
vertical |
0.00 |
0.00 |
SA |
= |
= |
|
| |
IS |
IS |
(1.04) |
(1.04) |
(1.04) |
0.00 |
0.00 |
IS |
= |
= |
|
| |
LM |
LM |
1.30 |
1.30 |
1.30 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
LM |
= |
= |
|
| |
demanda trabajo |
DT |
(0.00) |
(0.00) |
(0.00) |
0.00 |
0.00 |
DT |
= |
= |
|
| |
oferta trabajo |
ST |
0.14 |
0.14 |
0.15 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
ST |
= |
mayor |
|
| equilibrios |
0.00 |
|
| |
mercado bienes |
si |
si |
si |
0.00 |
m. bienes |
si |
si |
|
| |
mercado dinero |
si |
si |
si |
0.00 |
m. dinero |
si |
si |
|
| |
mercado trabajo |
si |
no |
si |
0.00 |
m. trabajo |
no |
si |
|
| desplazamientos de curvas |
|
| |
demanda agregada |
DA |
==> |
==> |
2.13 |
DA |
==> |
==> |
|
| |
oferta agregada |
SA |
==> |
|
0.00 |
SA |
==> |
|
|
| |
curva IS |
IS |
==> |
==> |
4.79 |
IS |
==> |
==> |
|
| |
curva LM |
LM |
<== |
<== |
(3.85) |
LM |
<== |
<== |
|
| |
demanda trabajo |
DT |
==> |
==> |
320.26 |
DT |
==> |
==> |
|
| |
oferta trabajo |
ST |
|
|
<== |
|
|
ST |
|
<== |
|
|
| | FORMULAS |
| |
a corto |
a largo |
| |
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P...ver abajo |
P=M/(kY-hi) |
|
| |
W=(Sº+g*N)*pe/x |
W=(Sº+g*N)*p/x |
|
| |
i=(A/b)-(Y/alfa/b) |
i=(A/b)-(Y/alfa/b) |
|
| |
M=Bº*(1+e)/(e+r) |
M=Bº*(1+e)/(e+r) |
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| |
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Y=N*a |
Y=N*a |
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| |
Yd=Y-T+TRº |
Yd=Y-T+TRº |
|
| |
N=(P*Dº*x-Pe*Sº*z)/(Pe*g*z+P*f*x) |
N=(Dº*x-Sº*z)/(g*z+f*x) |
|
| |
U=NP-N |
U=NP-N |
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W/P |
W/P |
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FY=FL*a |
FY=FL*a |
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| |
YP=NP*a |
YP=NP*a |
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| |
NP=FL(100-uf)/100 |
NP=FL(100-uf)/100 |
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| |
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| |
C=Cº+c*Yd-bc*i |
C=Cº+c*Yd-bc*i |
|
| |
I=Iº-bi*i+j*Y |
I=Iº-bi*i+j*Y |
|
| |
G=Gº |
G=Gº |
|
| |
A=Cº+Iº+Gº+c(TRº-Tº) |
A=Cº+Iº+Gº+c(TRº-Tº) |
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S=-Cº+(1-c)*Yd+bc*i |
S=-Cº+(1-c)*Yd+bc*i |
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| |
T=Tº+t*Y |
T=Tº+t*Y |
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| |
TR=TRº |
TR=TRº |
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| |
DP=G+TR-T |
DP=G+TR-T |
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alfa=1/[1-c*(1-t)-j] |
alfa=1/[1-c*(1-t)-j] |
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| |
Mf=1/[1-c(1-t)-j+(bk/h)] |
Mf=1/[1-c(1-t)-j+(bk/h)] |
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| |
Mm=Mf*b/h |
Mm=Mf*b/h |
|
| |
Mb=(1+e)/(e+r) |
Mb=(1+e)/(e+r) |
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DA'(p/Y)=-P*P/Mm/M |
DA'(p/Y)=-P*P/Mm/M |
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SA'(p/Y)=az(Dºgs+fSº)/x/(fY-aDº)^2 |
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| |
IS'(i/Y)=-1/ALFA/b |
IS'(i/Y)=-1/ALFA/b |
|
| |
LM'(i/Y)=k/h |
LM'(i/Y)=k/h |
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| |
DT'(W/N)=-f*p/(1+cssf) |
DT'(W/N)=-f*p/(1+cssf) |
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| |
ST'(W/N)=g*Pe/(1-cssw-tw) |
ST'(W/N)=g*P/(1-cssw-tw) |
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S-I=DP |
S-I=DP |
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M/P=k*Y-h*i |
M/P=k*Y-h*i |
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Pe=P+varpe |
Pe=P+varpe |
|
| |
z=1+cssf |
z=1+cssf |
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| |
x=1-cssw-tw |
x=1-cssw-tw |
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| |
b=bi+bc |
b=bi+bc |
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valor de P, siendo |
|
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| |
alfa*P^2+beta*P+gamma=0 |
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| |
alfa=x*Dº*a-x*f*Mf*A |
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| |
beta=-x*f*Mm*M-Pe*z*(g*Mf*A-Sº*a) |
Restricciones del modelo: |
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| |
gamma=-Pe*z*g*Mm*M |
Oferta Monetaria
exógena |
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Sin Efecto Riqueza |
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Ecuaciones lineales |
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| Ecuaciones
del Modelo |
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Mercado de bienes |
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Equilibrios |
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Resumen |
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C=Cº+c(Y-T+TR)-bc*i |
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| |
I=Iº+jY-bi*i |
==> |
Y=C+I+G |
Demanda agregada |
|
| |
G=Gº, TR=TRº |
=======> |
Y=Mf*A+Mm*M/P |
|
| |
T=Tº+t*Y |
|
Mercado de trabajo |
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| |
Mercado de dinero |
|
Oferta agregada |
Y=a*N |
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| |
M=Hº(1+e)/(e+r) |
==> |
M/P=k*Y-h*i |
Y=a*(Dº*x-Sº*z)/(g*z+f*x) |
<==== |
W(1+cssf)/P=Dº-f*N |
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L=kY-hi |
W(1-cssw-tw)/Pe=Sº+g*N |
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